A Perspective from Japan
Ozawa’s Scandal and the Okinawa Base Issue
Cultural News 2009 April
By Motoaki Kamiura, Military Analyst
Translated by Alan Gleason
Takanori Okubo, chief secretary to Ichiro Ozawa, president of the opposition Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), has been indicted for alleged illegal fundraising activities. Until the fundraising scandal erupted, the DPJ was expected to trounce the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in the upcoming Lower House election, which by law must be held no later than this autumn.
Ozawa was therefore widely regarded as the most likely pick for the nation’s next prime minister. Yet the Tokyo District Prosecutor’s Office chose this moment to arrest the man in charge of Ozawa’s finances on charges of making false reports on political donations. Pundits say that in the past, such violations would have been remedied simply by filing a revised report.
What are we to make of the prosecutors’ timing in taking an action that they had to know would create a scandal of momentous repercussions and invite accusations of political conspiracy?
One possible explanation involves the DPJ’s declaration that, should it assume power as the new ruling party, it would reconsider Japan’s commitment to the United States to move the U.S. Marine Corps’ Futenma Air Station to another location on the island of Okinawa.
The U.S. and Japan have already reaffirmed several times, in writing, an agreement to build a replacement for Futenma at the Marines’ Camp Schwab in Nago City on the northern part of the island.
On December 19, 2008, Joseph Nye, who was considered in the closest position to new U.S. Ambassador to Japan at that time, visited the country and met in a Tokyo hotel with Ozawa’s two top lieutenants, DPJ Deputy Chief Naoto Kan and Secretary General Yukio Hatoyama. At this meeting Nye came right to the point and informed them that any move by the DPJ to renegotiate the Futenma plan or the overall U.S.-Japan Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) would be regarded as an anti-American gesture.
Also present, reports say, was Kurt Campbell, the former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for Asia and the Pacific in charge of negotiations for the Futenma agreement on the American side. However, neither of the DPJ representatives voiced a commitment one way or the other.
When Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited Japan in February, she spoke directly with Ozawa about the Futenma issue. Once again, Ozawa refused to commit himself to building a new base at Camp Schwab. Ozawa and the DPJ find it hard to give a straight answer because the issue is a thorny one, involving a complex web of political and economic interests on the part of the citizens of Nago City and Okinawa Prefecture, local businessmen, and politicians and bureaucrats.
Meanwhile, another pronouncement by Ozawa, that the U.S. Navy’s Seventh Fleet should be a “sufficient” U.S. military presence in Japan, generated more controversy. His remark was taken by the American side as further indication that Ozawa may have already decided to scrap the entire Camp Schwab construction plan.
On March 7, immediately after the arrest of Ozawa’s secretary, Prime Minister Taro Aso of the LDP made a sudden trip to Okinawa. Aso did not visit Futenma or the Camp Schwab site, but simply met with the governor of Okinawa, issued a message that he would put all his effort into resolving the U.S. base problem, and flew back to Tokyo.
Behind the indictment of Ozawa’s secretary a powerful political dynamic is unquestionably at work, and one of its consequences has been to thrust the Futenma issue to the fore again.
Motoaki Kamiura is a Tokyo-based military analyst. When the world is in crisis, he appears frequently on national television programs.
Alan Gleason is an editor, writer, and Japanese-English translator. He lives in Tokyo.